水电能源科学

60多年来，受上游流域降水量减少和人类活动增强影响，密云水库入库水沙特征发生了一定变化。基于密云水库入库两大控制站潮河下会站和白河张家坟站1961～2023年的水文系列资料，采用趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验、双累积曲线等方法，分析密云水库流域的水沙变化。结果表明，1960年代入库水沙变化主要受降水影响，随着1970年代中期至1980年代的大规模水土流失治理和大量水利工程修建，水沙变化受人类活动影响增大，张家坟站和下会站的径流量和输沙量明显减少，且径流量均在1980～1990年代后期发生了突变，水沙搭配关系于2000年左右均趋于稳定。降水量、水利工程建设、水土流失治理及引调水等因素直接或间接地影响了密云水库入库的水沙变化，推动形成了当前稳定的水沙关系。研究结果对密云水库流域水资源保护和水土保持具有重要意义。

Over the past 60 years, the runoff and sediment regime of the Miyun Reservoir has undergone certain changes due to the decrease of precipitation in the upstream basin and intensified human activities. Based on the hydrological data(1961-2023) at two control stations—Xiahui Station in Chaohe and Zhangjiafen Station in Baihe, the trend analysis, Mann-Kendall abrupt change tests, and double mass curves were used to analyze variation of water-sediment in the Miyun Reservoir Basin. The results indicate that precipitation primarily influenced the change of water-sediment in the 1960s. However, large-scale soil-water conservation projects and hydraulic constructions initiated in the 1970s increasingly amplified human impacts, leading to significant reductions in runoff and sediment load at both stations. Non-significant mutations occurred in the late from 1980s to 1990s, with water-sediment relationships stabilizing around 2000. Factors such as precipitation, hydraulic engineering, erosion control, and water diversion directly or indirectly shaped these changes, ultimately establishing the current equilibrium. The research results are of great significance for the protection of water resources and soil and water conservation in the Miyun Reservoir Basin.