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黄河流域是我国重要的清洁能源富集区，阐明流域尺度风光水互补规律对清洁能源基地规划具有重要意义。现有研究多聚焦局部区域的资源评估或互补分析，缺乏覆盖全流域的多时间尺度资源评估及互补性系统分析。本文基于再分析数据构建1980—2019年黄河流域风光水日内、年内、年际三个尺度发电潜力数据集，采用相关系数、互补指数与变异系数分析其互补特征及联合出力稳定性。结果表明：黄河流域风电、光伏、水能优势区空间错位显著；风光相关性呈正相关，风水、光水组合呈显著负相关；三能源综合互补性表现为年内最优、年际次之、日内最弱；风光水三能源联合运行在多时间尺度均可有效降低发电出力波动，平抑效果优于双能源组合，其中水电作为核心调节电源，对提升系统稳定性具有关键作用。研究结果可为黄河流域风光水一体化开发及清洁能源基地规划提供依据。
Abstract：Yellow River Basin is an important clean energy-rich region in China. Clarifying the complementarity patterns of wind， solar， and hydropower at the basin scale is essential for planning integrated clean energy development. Existing studies have mainly focused on resource assessment or complementarity analysis in localized areas， with limited systematic assessments covering the entire basin across multiple temporal scales. In this study， a unified spatiotemporal dataset of wind， solar， and hydropower generation for the Yellow River Basin from 1980 to 2019 was developed using ERA5-Land reanalysis data， GRFR runoff data， and technical parameters of 12 large hydropower stations. Kendall’s rank correlation coefficient， the total-time complementarity index， and the coefficient of variation were then employed to examine energy complementarity and the stability of combined power generation at intra-day， intra-annual， and interannual scales. The results showed that areas with high wind， solar， and hydropower potential were characterized by pronounced spatial separation. Wind and solar power outputs were positively correlated， whereas wind–hydro and solar–hydro combinations exhibited significant negative correlations. Overall， the complementarity of the three-energy system was strongest at the intra-annual scale， followed by the interannual scale， and weakest at the intra-day scale. The combined operation of wind， solar， and hydropower effectively reduced power-output fluctuations across all temporal scales and generally provided greater smoothing effects than two-energy combinations. Hydropower served as the key regulating source and played a critical role in enhancing the stability of the integrated energy system. These findings provide a scientific basis for integrated wind–solar–hydropower development and the planning of large-scale clean energy bases in the Yellow River Basin.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:TM61
引用信息:
[1]杜钰,高扬.黄河流域风光水发电潜力及互补特征[J].水电能源科学().
2026-09-03
2026-09-03
2026-09-03