水电能源科学

在极端气候事件频发的背景下，分析松花江流域受气候变化影响，在近30年的地表水体时空变化，对于区域提前采取并优化气候应对措施有重要意义。基于松花江流域1990～2020年地表水体面积时空动态变化特征，对季节性水体归类分析，利用EC JRC全球地表水产品数据集，结合MATLAB软件采用时序特征+K-means聚类与动态统计阈值法，分析松花江流域近30年地表水体面积变化趋势并对季节性水体进行归类分析与极端水文年检测与恢复动态分析。结果表明，研究期间松花江流域季节性水体面积增幅114%,永久性水体面积降幅49.46%,地表水体总面积呈上升趋势；将逐年季节性水体面积划分为波动—丰水年、低波动—枯水年、平稳—平水年3个类别，轮廓系数为0.549,聚类效果良好；识别出1998、2013年两个显著高值年，并分析出均未完全恢复。研究成果为针对松花江流域未来的极端天气提前采取防洪、防涝措施，以及对水资源的有效管理和保护提供了方向。

Under the background of frequent extreme climate events, analyzing the spatio-temporal changes of surface water bodies in the Songhua River Basin affected by climate change over the past 30 years is of great significance for the region to take and optimize climate response measures in advance. Based on the spatio-temporal dynamic changes of surface water area in the Songhua River Basin from 1990 to 2020, seasonal water bodies were classified and analyzed. By using the EC JRC global surface water product dataset and combining with MATLAB software, the time series feature +K-means clustering and dynamic statistical threshold method were adopted to analyze the changing trend of surface water area in the Songhua River Basin in the past 30 years, and to classify the seasonal water body area as well as detect and analyze the recovery dynamics of extreme hydrological years. The results show that during the study period, the seasonal water body area in the Songhua River Basin increased by 114%, while the permanent water body area decreased by 49.46%, and the total surface water area showed an upward trend. The annual seasonal water body area was classified into three categories: fluctuating-wet year, low fluctuation-dry year, and stable-normal year, with a silhouette coefficient of 0.549, indicating a good clustering effect. Two significant high-value years, 1998 and 2013, were identified, and it was analyzed that neither had fully recovered. The research results provide a direction for the effective management and protection of water resources by referring to historical extreme hydrological events and making flood and drought prevention preparations in advance for the Songhua River Basin in the face of future extreme weather.