水电能源科学

基于1980～2019年河北省142个国家基本气象站的逐小时降水数据，综合运用Mann-Kendall(MK)趋势及突变检验、K-means聚类算法、水文气象一致区等方法，系统分析了河北省短历时极端降水的时间演变特征与空间分布规律。结果表明，短历时极端降水年际变化存在显著区域差异，高海拔山地地区降水量呈上升趋势，低海拔平原及丘陵区极端降水量呈下降趋势，且在1996年存在明显突变点；地形因子影响显著，平原及山地南坡的极端降水范围缩减，而山地北坡短历时(1、3 h)极端降水范围扩张，极端降水发生区域逐渐向山地转移；季节差异明显，冬春两季降水量呈上升趋势，夏秋两季下降趋势显著，其中第三季度Rx24h下降速率达0.337 mm/a。研究结果揭示了河北省短历时极端降水的时空分异规律，为区域防洪减灾及气候变化适应性管理提供科学依据。

Based on the hourly precipitation data(1980-2019) from 142 national stations in Hebei Province, Mann-Kendall(MK) trend and mutation test, K-means clustering, and hydrometeorologically homogeneous region methods were used to systematically analyze the temporal evolution characteristics and spatial distribution patterns of short-term extreme precipitation in Hebei Province. The results show that significant regional differences exist in interannual variation of short-term extreme precipitation, with an upward trend in high-altitude mountains and a downward trend in low-altitude plains/hills, marked by a 1996 change-point. Topography significantly influences patterns: the spatial extent decreases in plains and southern slopes but expands on northern slopes for 1 h and 3 h durations, indicating a shift towards mountainous areas. Seasonal differences are pronounced: winter/spring increases, while summer and autumn decreases significantly, with third-quarter Rx24h declining at 0.337 mm/a. The research results reveal the spatio-temporal differentiation law of short-term extreme precipitation in Hebei Province, providing a scientific basis for regional flood control and disaster reduction as well as adaptive management to climate change.