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洪水过程不确定性分析是水库防洪调度方式研究的重要基础。然而，现有研究较少将上游水库坝址洪水与下游区间支流洪水进行联合分布分析。本文以雅砻江中游两河口水电站及其下游在建的孟底沟水电站为研究对象，应用高斯Copula函数构建了两河口坝址洪水及两河口－孟底沟区间洪水的年最大洪峰流量和最大15日洪量的四变量联合分布。采用拉丁超立方抽样（LHS）技术模拟生成干支流洪水特征样本，并通过概率相似性匹配对应的历史洪水过程，形成若干洪水场景。在此基础上，结合风险度量指标—风险价值（VaR）和条件风险价值（CVaR），综合评估了不同起调水位下的防洪风险。研究表明：所提出的Copula-LHS洪水场景生成框架能有效表征洪水变量的相关性，基于VaR与CVaR的防洪风险评估模型可为防洪调度策略的风险量化提供可靠依据。据此提出了两河口水库在汛期分阶段的起调水位控制建议，为孟底沟截流施工期的安全度汛提供了理论支持与决策参考。
Abstract：Flood uncertainty analysis is fundamental to reservoir flood control. This study addresses the joint distribution of upstream dam-site and downstream interval floods using the Lianghekou and Mengdigou stations on the Yalong River. A four-variable Gaussian Copula was constructed for annual maximum peak discharge and 15-day flood volume. Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) with probability-based hydrograph matching generated flood scenarios， and value at risk (VaR) and conditional value at risk (CVaR) assessed risks under varying initial water levels. Results demonstrate the Copula-LHS framework effectively captures flood correlations， and the VaR-CVaR model provides reliable risk quantification. Staged initial water level controls are proposed to ensure safe flood passage during Mengdigou's diversion construction.
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基本信息:
中图分类号:TV87;TV551.2;TV697.13
引用信息:
[1]魏勤,丁金涛,陈平,等.两河口对孟底沟截流施工期安全度汛的防洪调度方式研究[J].水电能源科学().
基金信息:
国家重点研发计划项目（2024YFB2409000）
2026-08-12
2026-08-12
2026-08-12