水电能源科学

雷州半岛是珠江流域干旱高发频发区域之一，研究雷州半岛气象与水文干旱变化特征及响应规律对理解降雨丰沛但水资源结构脆弱区域的干旱特征具有重要的理论和现实意义。基于雷州半岛地区代表站的逐月气象、水文数据，利用标准化降水蒸散指数(I_SPEI)及标准径流指数(I_SRI),分析了该地区1970～2016年间的气象干旱、水文干旱变化规律，采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验法、滑动平均法和Morlet小波分析法，分析该地区不同时间尺度(3、12个月)的气象干旱和水文干旱变化趋势和周期，并以游程理论研究了气象干旱向水文干旱的传播特性。结果表明，研究时段内雷州半岛气象干旱呈现出显著加剧趋势，其中12个月尺度的I_SPEI下降趋势显著，湛江站和徐闻站下降速率分别为-0.014、-0.008/月，而水文干旱未出现明显的变化趋势。研究区气象干旱与水文干旱均呈现出多尺度的周期性特征，南、北部的第一主周期分别为14、20年，南、北部气象干旱和水文干旱的主周期一致，变化规律较为同步；相比于雷州半岛北部，南部的水文干旱对气象干旱的响应关系更为密切。

The Leizhou Peninsula exhibits one of the highest incidences of drought within the Pearl River Basin. Research on the characteristics and response mechanisms of meteorological and hydrological droughts in this area holds significant theoretical and practical importance for understanding drought patterns in regions with abundant rainfall yet fragile water resource systems. Based on the monthly meteorological and hydrological data from the representative station in Leizhou Peninsula, the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index(I_SPEI) and standard runoff index(I_SRI) were used to analyze the variation patterns of meteorological drought and hydrological drought in this region from 1970 to 2016. The Mann-Kendall trend test method, moving average method and Morlet wavelet analysis method were adopted to analyze the changing trends and cycles of meteorological drought and hydrological drought in this region at different time scales(3 and 12 months). Propagation characteristics of meteorological drought to hydrological drought were examined using the run-length theory. The results show that the meteorological drought in Leizhou Peninsula is increasing during the study period. Particularly, the 12-month I_SPEI obtained from Zhanjiang station and Xuwen station decreased significantly, at the rate of-0.014/month and-0.008/month, respectively. However, no obvious trend of hydrological drought was detected. Both drought types showed multi-scale periodicity, sharing a primary first-order period of 20 years in the north and 14 years in the south. The main cycles of meteorological drought and hydrological drought in the south and north are consistent, and the variation patterns are relatively synchronous. Hydrological drought in the southern peninsula demonstrated stronger responsiveness to meteorological drought than the northern region.