水电能源科学

为弥补现有水安全评价方法在指标选择的科学性、权重分配的准确性方面的不足，围绕指标优选和权重赋值优化，构建了一套系统的水安全评价流程，从防洪、饮水、用水、河湖生态和社会经济安全五个方面出发，通过相关性分析、主成分分析和信息敏感性分析筛选关键指标，并结合熵权法、层次分析法、投影寻踪模型与云模型，利用模拟退火算法求解组合权重，最终采用云模型进行综合评价，并以湖南省郴州市为例进行分析。结果表明，指标优选筛选出了工业重复用水率、人均水资源占有量等22个关键指标；基于模拟退火算法求解的组合权重与指标信息敏感性的相关性最高(R²=0.744 2),权重分配更加合理；郴州市2016～2022年水安全状态整体为“基本安全”,呈现持续改善趋势。研究结果验证了所构建模型的有效性和适用性，为城市水安全评价提供了新的方法论支持与实践指导。

To address the shortcomings of existing water safety evaluation methods in terms of scientific indicator selection and accurate weight allocation, this study focuses on the optimal selection of indicators and optimization of weight assignment, starting from five aspects of flood control, drinking water, water use, river and lake ecology, and socio-economic security. The key indicators are selected through correlation analysis, principal component analysis, and information sensitivity analysis. The combined weight method, integrating entropy weight method, analytic hierarchy process, projection pursuit model, and cloud model, is used to solve the indicator weights, which are then optimized by simulated annealing. Finally, the cloud model is employed for comprehensive evaluation, with an application case in Chenzhou City, Hunan Province. The results show that the indicator optimization identified 22 key indicators, including industrial recycled water rate and per capita water resource availability; The correlation between the weights obtained by the simulated annealing algorithm and indicator information sensitivity is the highest(R²=0.744 2), indicating a more reasonable weight distribution; The water safety status of Chenzhou City from 2016 to 2022 was generally basically safe, with a continuous improvement trend. The results validate the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed model, which provides new methodological support and practical guidance for urban water safety evaluation.